Are you more likely to be struck by lightning or win the lottery? Enter any chance as “1 in N” or a percentage and see exactly where it lands on a ladder of famous odds, from rolling double sixes to hitting the Powerball jackpot. You also get the odds of it happening at least once if you try many times.
How odds and chances convert
A common mistake is thinking that trying N times guarantees a win. With a 1 in 100 chance, 100 tries gives you only about a 63% chance of at least one success. You need around 69 tries just to reach 50/50.
Where the famous odds come from
- Lightning: US National Weather Service. About 1 in 1,222,000 in a given year, and 1 in 15,300 over an 80-year lifetime.
- Powerball: 5 of 69 white balls and 1 of 26 red, so 11,238,513 × 26 = 1 in 292,201,338.
- Mega Millions (since April 2025): 5 of 70 and 1 of 24, so 1 in 290,472,336.
- Royal flush: 4 of the 2,598,960 possible 5-card hands, so 1 in 649,740.
- Perfect bracket: 63 games picked at random, so 2⁶³ ≈ 9.2 quintillion.
- Figures marked “approx.” (identical twins, four-leaf clovers, holes-in-one) are commonly cited estimates that vary by source.
Frequently asked questions
Are you more likely to be struck by lightning or win the lottery?
Far more likely to be struck by lightning. The NWS puts lifetime odds at about 1 in 15,300, while one Powerball ticket has a 1 in 292 million chance at the jackpot, about 19,000 times less likely.
How do I convert odds to a percentage?
Divide 1 by N and multiply by 100. “1 in 250” = 1 ÷ 250 × 100 = 0.4%.
If something is 1 in 100, will it happen if I try 100 times?
Not guaranteed. The chance of at least one success in 100 tries is 1 − 0.99¹⁰⁰ ≈ 63.4%.
What are the odds of a perfect March Madness bracket?
Picking all 63 games by pure chance gives 1 in 9.2 quintillion (2⁶³). Using knowledge of the teams improves that enormously, but it is still astronomically unlikely.
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For entertainment and learning. Estimated odds vary between sources; exact odds are shown for games of chance with fixed rules. Please gamble responsibly, if at all.